Friday, April 30, 2010

Courtesy of C.W. Lucas

Note: below is an email I was copied on.  Just look at what my life has become...every word of the following makes complete sense.  At least it's not a life of calf-castration.  (That's a PW reference.  Sorry, I'm obsessed.)  Carry on.

2010 Kentucky Derby
Corey’s Selections and Analysis

This year’s edition of the Derby is very captivating; there’s a ton of speed, a few deep closers, a filly, and then of course a couple that don’t seem to belong, but then again, who thought that Mine That Bird or Giacomo would win? Not very many, yet they both went off a tad higher than 50‐1 and walked away with the roses.

Lookin At Lucky (3‐1) is a serious contender, he can rate, sit just off the lead, close from far back, and seems to do whatever he is asked; the problem is: he’s breaking from the #1 post…can’t use him on top.

Sidney’s Candy (5‐1) has speed, yet he’s out in the 20 path; yes, I know, Big Brown was too, but he didn’t need the lead, Sidney looks like he might, and with all the other speed…gotta pass.

Dublin (12‐1) has the pedigree to win this and will be running late; he has run 3 solid beyers this year(97,93,96) Lukas put a couple nice works into him, and I think he’s sitting on a big effort. He certainly has the stamina; he’s out of Afleet Alex, who won 2/3 of the Triple Crown himself. The dam, Classy Mirage, provides speed and a lot of class underneath. Now, why is Terry Thompson up?? If he can hang on, Dublin might just win this at a price.

Jackson Bend (15‐1) who we have not heard a whole lot about will be on my tickets. He has never run worse than 2nd in 9 starts…running 2nd to Eskendereya twice. Shows two nice works for Zito; I like this guy to run a good one.

Noble’s Promise (12‐1) nearly ran down one of the probable favorites, and almost outlasted his another time (I’m talking about Lookin at Lucky) I will use him; I think he can sit just off the pace, and providing he gets a good trip might be around at the finish.

Ice Box (10‐1)….no thanks, he hasn’t shown me anything, other than his ability to close in a weak field and hot pace. He was all out to beat Pleasant Prince, who has since come back to run off the board. He will face much better Saturday afternoon, in a crowded field. I will pass on him…might get over bet as well.

Awesome Act (10‐1) and Discreetly Mine (30‐1) might have a shot if they can rate. Awesome Act lost a shoe last race, and still managed to run on and finish pretty well. If he runs back to his Gotham, he could be very dangerous.

Dean’s Kitten…..really????

Final selections:

1. Dublin (12‐1)

2. Awesome Act (10‐1)

3. Jackson’s Bend (15‐1)

4. Noble’s Promise (12‐1)


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